On the occasion of the U.S. congressional midterm elections, which will determine the new political majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate, zeb.Institute for Financial Services at Witten/Herdecke University is hosting an open discussion on political developments in the U.S. and their potential impact on international politics.
The panelists will include Klaus Prömpers, a longtime ZDF foreign correspondent and foreign policy expert, and Prof. Dr. Nils Bormann, Dean of the Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences at Witten/Herdecke University.
As part of the higher education system, the newly founded zeb Institute for Financial Services at Witten/Herdecke University fulfills its mission of discussing current sociopolitical issues with participants and interested parties in our degree programs and continuing education courses.
In this context, interested individuals are now cordially invited to an open discussion with Mr. Klaus Prömpers, an internationally renowned ZDF foreign correspondent and foreign policy expert, as well as with Professor Dr. Nils Bormann, Dean of the Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences at UW/H.
On the topic
In light of the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, many questions arise: What are the consequences of the results of the midterm elections in the U.S.? Is U.S. President Trump facing defeat—or even a loss of power—in the midterm elections on November 3? If so, a now-hostile Congress would derail his agenda and launch a flood of investigations.
All 435 members of the House of Representatives, 35 of the 100 senators, as well as 36 governors and thousands of local political offices will be up for election. These elections are traditionally considered the most important political barometer between presidential elections. This time, they are likely to be, above all, a referendum on Trump. He himself is not on the ballot—but his record in office is.
The stalled war with Iran, high gas prices, inflation, and rising mortgage rates are taking their toll on the U.S. president. Swing voters, in particular, are turning away from him. In a recent AP/NORC poll, only 31 percent approved of his performance in office, while 69 percent disapproved. His plummeting popularity is dragging the Republicans down. The Democrats lead by about ten percentage points in the polls. Their chances of recapturing the House of Representatives stand at around 75 percent. And even in the Senate, where the bar is significantly higher, an upset is possible. Trump’s Republicans could even face defeats in former strongholds like North Carolina or Texas.
Four scenarios are conceivable
- A “Democratic wave” sweeps Republicans from power: Democrats are leading in nearly all of the battleground states, including Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Texas. For Trump, it would be a nightmare scenario and perhaps even the beginning of the end for the Trump movement.
- But just a small blue wave?: In this case, the Republicans could retain their majority in the Senate, at least, and thus protect Trump from the opposition’s fiercest attacks in the upper chamber of Congress.
- A surprise victory for the Republicans?: Trump is already railing that the polls are “fake,” just like the news. Certainly, there have been occasional polling blunders—in 2022, a clear Republican victory was expected, yet the Democrats, under then-President Joe Biden, performed significantly better.
- Chaotic elections: The 2026 midterms could even plunge the U.S. into a constitutional crisis if Trump’s lawsuits and executive orders from the White House disrupt the elections. The rhetoric has recently intensified. Some Trump activists have already floated the idea of declaring “martial law.”
Trump and the Republicans do have one major advantage, however: money. A lot of money from Trump’s coffers ($180 million) has flowed into key election campaigns. Trump’s strategists know, however, that all the money in the world cannot make up for a lack of enthusiasm. And that pendulum currently seems to be swinging in favor of the opposition.
The event is free and will take place online.